The first vaccine may have been administered, but the threat of the disease still remains so real already this year.
Even when shops and stores open, the threat continues to remain as real as ever – and now a somewhat sickly tool will allow you to calculate how likely you will die if you get caught COVID-19.
Researchers, including Native Americans, have developed a new online calculator to assess the individual and community level risk of dying from COVID-19.
The study, published in the journal Natural medicine, revealed that the calculator will be used by public health authorities to assess death risks in different communities, and to prioritize certain groups to vaccinate as COVID-19 vaccines are available.
The algorithm under the calculator uses information from existing large studies to assess risk of COVID-19 mortality for individuals by age, sex, sociodemographic factors, and various other health conditions.
The risk assessments apply to individuals in the general population who are currently uninfected and capture factors associated with both risks of future infection and complications after infection.
“Our calculator represents a more quantitative approach and should complement other proposed quality guidelines for determining individual and community risks and allocating vaccines,” said study senior author Nilanjan Chatterjee of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the United States.
The calculator based on the model is available online for public health officials and interested people.
It enables a user to determine individual risk based on factors such as age, gender, race / ethnicity and medical history and can be used to define risk for a group, such as for a particular community, company or university, based on the mix of factors that define the group.
In its article, the research team used its calculator to describe the risk distribution for the entire U.S. population, showing, for example, that only about 4% of the high-risk population – defined as five times greater risk than the U.S. average – – is expected contribute close to 50% of the total deaths.
The researchers also showed that population-level risk varies considerably from city to city and district to district.
“For example, the percentage of the adult population exceeding the fivefold risk threshold varies from 0.4% in Layton, Utah, to 10.7% in Detroit, Michigan,” Chatterjee said.
The calculator allows users to calculate the death risk of individuals by combining information on individual-level factors with community-level pandemic dynamics, as available from a wide variety of predictive models.
Thus, when a large wave of infections hits a population, the risk assessments for individuals will grow in that community.
Currently the tool is updated weekly to incorporate information on state-level pandemic dynamics.
That’s not the only tool evaluating yours COVID-19 risk. Earlier, in November, a tool allowed people to assess the risk of attending meetings where they live, using real-time infectious data.
Read More: Are You Going to a Limited Social Gathering? This Tool Allows You To Calculate The Risk Of COVID-19 Infection
If you were in a group of ten people in the US capital, Washington, today, you risk that person. COVID-19 would be 18 percent. The equivalent figure in Paris is 32 percent.
It estimates the probability of at least one COVID-19 a positive person will be present at a defined event in a defined district or district after the user enters the size of the meeting with a slider.
(With IANS inputs)